Pools show where liquidity sits; pipes show where liquidity is moving.
Green flow supports liquidity; red flow drains liquidity.
Amber gates mean transmission is restricted or unstable.
Pool Colors
Main Reading Rule
Pool color = what type of market or liquidity bucket it is.
Pipe color = whether money is entering or leaving.
Pools show where liquidity sits. Pipes show where liquidity is moving.
Pipe Colors
- Green pipe / green particlesInjection — money is flowing into this pool or through this gate.
- Red pipe / red particlesDrain — money is leaving this pool or being pulled out of the system.
- Amber pipe / amber particlesPressure — liquidity exists, but the flow is restricted or unstable.
- Blue signal pipeNeutral — the path exists, but the flow is weak, secondary, or inactive.
What Size and Motion Mean
How to Read the Whole System
- Step 1: Start with the sources at the top.
- Step 2: Watch whether liquidity enters US Cash and World Money.
- Step 3: Check Credit Gate and Risk Gate. If gates are open, liquidity can reach markets. If gates are tight, liquidity may stay trapped.
- Step 4: Look at the final pools. Safe Cash rising = defensive. Risk Assets rising = risk-on. Crypto Beta rising = high-beta risk-on.
Simple Interpretation Rules
- Green flow into Safe Cash means liquidity is being created, but investors may still be cautious.
- Green flow into Risk Assets means liquidity is reaching the broader market.
- Green flow into Crypto Beta means speculative appetite is improving.
- Red flow out of Risk Assets or Crypto Beta means risk appetite is weakening.
- Amber flow near Credit Gate or Risk Gate means liquidity transmission is not clean yet.
Current Read
Liquidity can exist in the system, but it only becomes bullish for markets when it passes through the gates and reaches Risk Assets or Crypto Beta.
Three headline reads first; formulas and methodology stay tucked behind the toggle.
Data freshness — URLI (US) and GMLCI (Global) update weekly; latest 2026-08-07.
Next-week URLI — projected range -64.50 to +45.50: a model-derived scenario estimate shown with a wide ±band (Scenario estimate · wide ±band · point has averaged ±54 pts off over 2 scored wks since the 2026-07-21 model fix), so read it as direction, not a precise call.
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
Reserve plumbing, Treasury cash flows, funding conditions, and rate-path pressure, scored weekly from the Federal Reserve H.4.1 release.
GMLCI — Global M2 Liquidity & Credit Index
Broad money across the US, euro area, China, Japan, and the UK; central-bank balance sheets; credit impulse; and risk transmission into markets.
Both indexes run on a -100 to +100 scale. Scores above +40 mark broad liquidity expansion; below -40, contraction. Every weekly report lists its sources and release dates.
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Aug 7, 2026). Crypto & meme market cap and read use the weekly report snapshot (CoinGecko · as of Aug 12, 2026). Homepage and latest weekly memo use the same Waterline snapshot. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
A transparent XPOWER estimate using a public power-law formula, paired with daily BTC market data — the model updates daily.
Formula: price = exp(5.71 x ln(days) - 38.16), where days are counted from Bitcoin genesis on 2009-01-03.
Historical regression estimate only, not a forecast. The fit is based on historical BTC price behavior and sequential observations; future applicability is limited and should be treated with caution.
